Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Retail Trade Employment Growth
Across Ohio Counties
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of retail trade employment growth across all of Ohio's 88 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Ohio Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the retail trade employment growth of Ohio's 88 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
This figure displays the 88 counties of Ohio as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual retail trade employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the retail trade employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term retail trade employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.26%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.26% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.26%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 35 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 53 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 27 counties whose most recent (2017) retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.14%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 61 counties whose retail trade employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 88 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.26% over 2010-2017 and 0.14% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.26%) and near-term (0.14%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.26%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Ohio average (0.14%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.26%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (0.14%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.26%) and near-term (0.14%).
   
 
Summary of Ohio's 88 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(0.14%)
Above
(0.14%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.26%)
18
17
35
Below
(0.26%)
43
10
53
 
61
27
88
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Ohio counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Ohio's average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 0.26%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.14%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 17 (19%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 18 Ohio counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 0.26%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 0.14%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Observe that 18 (20%) of Ohio's 88 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
This figure shows the distribution of the 10 Ohio counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 0.26%), while they outpaced Ohio's average near-term (2017 = 0.14%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, only 11% (10) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 0.26%
2017 = 0.14%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 43 Ohio counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 0.26%) as well as near-term (2017 = 0.14%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
49% of Ohio's counties, 43 of 88, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Ohio
Retail Trade Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
35
0.32
 
20
0.95
2,757
 
19
0.77
 
7
2.39
1,459
 
4
2.44
 
13
1.60
23,360
 
5
2.24
 
12
1.73
15,194
 
15
1.22
 
3
6.47
87,336
 
13
1.23
 
19
0.96
5,875
 
7
1.92
 
2
7.65
12,756
 
28
0.56
 
16
1.44
1,129
 
22
0.74
 
14
1.46
9,464
 
12
1.30
 
4
4.46
2,482
 
30
0.44
 
27
0.18
2,711
 
8
1.89
 
15
1.44
1,056
 
10
1.46
 
18
1.23
8,372
 
9
1.59
 
1
14.24
1,989
 
2
4.00
 
6
3.93
3,280
 
6
2.20
 
10
2.04
14,234
 
11
1.34
 
17
1.26
1,128
Slipping Counties
 
26
0.67
 
28
-0.04
2,754
 
24
0.73
 
47
-1.31
5,054
 
32
0.42
 
53
-1.69
5,574
 
25
0.70
 
61
-1.91
8,272
 
14
1.22
 
86
-5.63
2,814
 
33
0.40
 
63
-2.03
2,269
 
34
0.36
 
80
-4.09
1,946
 
1
4.23
 
29
-0.27
3,305
 
20
0.77
 
62
-1.96
2,706
 
29
0.46
 
81
-4.17
482
 
23
0.73
 
78
-3.59
995
 
21
0.75
 
58
-1.79
6,406
 
16
1.19
 
69
-2.59
451
 
17
1.08
 
88
-9.97
1,354
 
18
1.02
 
66
-2.27
4,823
 
31
0.43
 
38
-0.98
36,057
 
27
0.66
 
52
-1.64
6,588
 
3
3.51
 
40
-1.09
2,719
Gaining Counties
 
87
-1.94
 
22
0.56
1,266
 
37
0.19
 
9
2.23
11,699
 
63
-0.45
 
26
0.27
49,847
 
81
-1.44
 
23
0.47
5,396
 
46
-0.01
 
11
1.74
2,165
 
62
-0.42
 
24
0.40
2,278
 
60
-0.38
 
5
4.41
758
 
64
-0.55
 
21
0.64
2,051
 
75
-0.94
 
8
2.29
1,521
 
69
-0.70
 
25
0.40
254
Lagging Counties
 
85
-1.70
 
77
-3.49
6,822
 
84
-1.69
 
54
-1.71
4,378
 
86
-1.88
 
55
-1.75
2,984
 
68
-0.69
 
60
-1.83
1,022
 
83
-1.64
 
45
-1.27
1,398
 
71
-0.81
 
36
-0.87
6,695
 
73
-0.83
 
51
-1.52
2,077
 
58
-0.36
 
50
-1.52
5,323
 
44
0.02
 
83
-4.95
1,633
 
43
0.04
 
82
-4.26
1,821
 
51
-0.14
 
49
-1.43
71,843
 
67
-0.68
 
57
-1.78
2,645
 
49
-0.04
 
42
-1.15
2,847
 
70
-0.78
 
85
-5.09
2,200
 
72
-0.83
 
79
-3.76
1,202
 
53
-0.17
 
87
-6.03
405
 
82
-1.44
 
41
-1.11
1,341
 
45
-0.01
 
46
-1.27
1,783
 
78
-1.04
 
84
-4.96
3,471
 
57
-0.35
 
64
-2.14
3,020
 
77
-0.99
 
68
-2.53
14,653
 
88
-2.13
 
70
-2.61
2,353
 
56
-0.33
 
44
-1.25
15,123
 
55
-0.28
 
59
-1.82
27,549
 
76
-0.95
 
33
-0.61
14,750
 
66
-0.66
 
72
-3.03
3,234
 
41
0.11
 
75
-3.22
10,522
 
50
-0.12
 
56
-1.77
6,115
 
80
-1.29
 
74
-3.09
533
 
61
-0.39
 
73
-3.07
28,656
 
79
-1.27
 
32
-0.52
578
 
48
-0.02
 
31
-0.48
2,065
 
59
-0.38
 
30
-0.46
7,867
 
54
-0.27
 
67
-2.43
3,336
 
42
0.06
 
35
-0.65
3,805
 
40
0.16
 
65
-2.14
2,738
 
74
-0.89
 
76
-3.25
2,441
 
36
0.20
 
37
-0.88
23,818
 
39
0.18
 
48
-1.38
12,329
 
52
-0.14
 
39
-1.02
5,635
 
65
-0.65
 
43
-1.15
1,459
 
47
-0.02
 
71
-2.72
3,649
 
38
0.19
 
34
-0.61
7,845
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.26
 
0.14
692,349
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.97
 
0.12
19,222,200
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510700_LSGL
 
   
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