Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Earnings Growth
Across Ohio Counties
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real state government earnings growth across all of Ohio's 88 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Ohio Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real state government earnings growth of Ohio's 88 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
This figure displays the 88 counties of Ohio as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real state government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real state government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real state government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.91%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.91% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.91%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 11 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 69 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 43 counties whose most recent (2022) real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.25%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 37 counties whose real state government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 88 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.91% over 2010-2022 and 2.25% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.91%) and near-term (2.25%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.91%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Ohio average (2.25%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.91%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.25%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.91%) and near-term (2.25%).
   
 
Summary of Ohio's 88 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.25%)
Above
(2.25%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.91%)
4
7
11
Below
(2.91%)
33
36
69
 
37
43
80
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Ohio counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Ohio's average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.91%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.25%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, just 7 (8%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 Ohio counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.91%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.25%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 4 (5%) of Ohio's 88 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
This figure shows the distribution of the 36 Ohio counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.91%), while they outpaced Ohio's average near-term (2022 = 2.25%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 41% (36) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 2.91%
2022 = 2.25%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 33 Ohio counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.91%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.25%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
38% of Ohio's counties, 33 of 88, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Ohio
Real* State Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
3.49
 
11
7.15
3,314
 
11
2.96
 
20
5.98
954,185
 
1
6.31
 
8
7.70
4,363
 
6
3.65
 
31
3.97
3,769
 
8
3.21
 
17
6.53
109,956
 
4
3.71
 
2
14.48
5,471
 
2
6.03
 
13
7.04
8,297
Slipping Counties
 
9
3.12
 
84
-8.92
19,708
 
5
3.66
 
58
1.17
60,945
 
3
5.52
 
51
2.01
6,931,016
 
10
3.04
 
45
2.20
13,303
Gaining Counties
 
31
1.45
 
25
4.65
3,378
 
48
0.77
 
36
3.54
98,609
 
75
-1.04
 
6
8.60
27,660
 
37
1.32
 
43
2.63
8,865
 
52
0.70
 
32
3.83
58,919
 
63
0.19
 
27
4.12
13,014
 
45
0.99
 
40
2.92
12,109
 
35
1.34
 
37
3.12
487,489
 
25
1.76
 
1
33.48
52,303
 
60
0.28
 
18
6.30
11,460
 
49
0.76
 
5
8.92
23,140
 
14
2.79
 
9
7.48
3,290
 
30
1.47
 
4
9.00
3,645
 
44
1.02
 
16
6.54
7,755
 
80
-3.14
 
14
7.03
16,499
 
18
2.28
 
15
6.91
7,285
 
64
0.08
 
12
7.11
13,513
 
50
0.74
 
28
4.11
6,739
 
66
-0.11
 
19
5.99
8,350
 
21
2.12
 
3
10.18
7,015
 
15
2.52
 
30
3.99
113,915
 
16
2.52
 
38
3.06
121,596
 
53
0.58
 
41
2.73
10,009
 
77
-1.20
 
34
3.64
114,042
 
36
1.33
 
26
4.59
6,467
 
61
0.27
 
21
5.91
22,822
 
34
1.34
 
7
8.19
15,201
 
29
1.54
 
35
3.58
135,726
 
19
2.23
 
24
4.71
146,087
 
54
0.57
 
29
4.07
8,088
 
70
-0.58
 
23
5.05
18,872
 
28
1.58
 
10
7.15
72,671
 
24
1.91
 
44
2.26
42,743
 
12
2.90
 
22
5.60
57,486
 
20
2.14
 
39
2.95
26,235
 
51
0.74
 
33
3.71
313,553
Lagging Counties
 
56
0.46
 
65
0.06
23,561
 
62
0.21
 
81
-2.97
4,218
 
76
-1.18
 
85
-10.01
13,694
 
69
-0.52
 
66
-0.14
24,932
 
40
1.16
 
73
-0.70
3,688
 
17
2.33
 
50
2.04
3,994
 
67
-0.33
 
60
0.75
6,993
 
57
0.43
 
83
-5.36
71,873
 
39
1.20
 
74
-1.12
56,884
 
58
0.35
 
70
-0.45
3,308
 
32
1.43
 
57
1.24
19,050
 
33
1.37
 
80
-2.23
38,806
 
38
1.27
 
49
2.16
16,900
 
73
-0.75
 
54
1.55
14,963
 
43
1.04
 
61
0.58
731,703
 
72
-0.66
 
76
-1.31
229,833
 
78
-1.76
 
48
2.16
64,767
 
47
0.83
 
55
1.38
12,159
 
13
2.86
 
56
1.29
3,074
 
23
1.96
 
63
0.57
3,546
 
22
1.97
 
53
1.69
131,452
 
27
1.59
 
68
-0.39
7,459
 
68
-0.46
 
79
-2.10
4,606
 
65
-0.05
 
71
-0.66
3,783
 
55
0.49
 
52
1.94
154,585
 
79
-2.23
 
69
-0.45
20,999
 
46
0.94
 
46
2.19
126,567
 
71
-0.60
 
67
-0.25
381,905
 
26
1.64
 
77
-1.82
6,145
 
41
1.15
 
59
0.86
116,738
 
59
0.28
 
75
-1.29
58,440
 
74
-0.90
 
82
-3.45
8,277
 
42
1.06
 
78
-1.93
3,257
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
467,557
 
U
U
 
42
2.63
434,351
 
U
U
 
72
-0.69
259,640
 
U
U
 
64
0.09
23,133
 
U
U
 
S
S
2,813
 
U
U
 
S
S
44,003
 
U
U
 
62
0.58
2,939
 
U
U
 
47
2.18
486,196
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.91
 
2.25
14,303,668
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.81
 
2.68
477,522,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620310_LSGL
 
   
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