Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Earnings Growth
Across Ohio Counties
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real manufacturing earnings growth across all of Ohio's 88 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Ohio Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real manufacturing earnings growth of Ohio's 88 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
This figure displays the 88 counties of Ohio as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real manufacturing earnings growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real manufacturing earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.29%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.29% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.29%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 44 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 39 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 52 counties whose most recent (2017) real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.45%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 31 counties whose real manufacturing earnings growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 88 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.29% over 2010-2017 and 2.45% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.29%) and near-term (2.45%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.29%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Ohio average (2.45%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.29%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.45%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.29%) and near-term (2.45%).
   
 
Summary of Ohio's 88 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.45%)
Above
(2.45%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.29%)
12
32
44
Below
(3.29%)
19
20
39
 
31
52
83
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Ohio counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Ohio's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 3.29%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.45%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 32 (36%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 12 Ohio counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 3.29%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 2.45%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 12 (14%) of Ohio's 88 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
This figure shows the distribution of the 20 Ohio counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 3.29%), while they outpaced Ohio's average near-term (2017 = 2.45%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 23% (20) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Ohio:
2010-2017 = 3.29%
2017 = 2.45%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 19 Ohio counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 3.29%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.45%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2017.
22% of Ohio's counties, 19 of 88, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Ohio
Real* Manufacturing Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
33
4.11
 
42
3.51
830,450
 
39
3.84
 
50
2.69
229,817
 
43
3.61
 
46
3.24
472,410
 
6
7.61
 
31
4.65
627,422
 
13
6.02
 
48
2.91
49,940
 
11
6.34
 
51
2.56
2,266,963
 
9
6.50
 
41
3.55
267,964
 
16
5.61
 
40
3.68
470,277
 
40
3.77
 
49
2.73
350,090
 
12
6.16
 
9
8.81
317,818
 
26
4.60
 
17
6.76
553,798
 
29
4.36
 
5
10.93
483,176
 
35
4.03
 
24
5.45
3,409,760
 
20
5.09
 
20
6.06
463,401
 
44
3.38
 
14
7.70
281,917
 
22
5.01
 
38
3.81
207,658
 
15
5.71
 
28
5.28
909,328
 
1
17.91
 
1
155.32
50,903
 
32
4.12
 
37
4.11
1,791,745
 
31
4.14
 
33
4.50
517,264
 
42
3.74
 
25
5.43
670,299
 
7
7.56
 
21
5.90
424,801
 
37
3.90
 
39
3.77
751,061
 
38
3.86
 
44
3.40
2,215,960
 
19
5.28
 
29
5.21
81,059
 
18
5.29
 
4
12.03
52,707
 
23
4.85
 
18
6.17
225,115
 
14
5.81
 
6
9.65
355,794
 
24
4.85
 
23
5.51
680,032
 
27
4.54
 
36
4.30
1,033,750
 
8
7.46
 
12
8.45
1,160,340
 
5
7.69
 
45
3.28
214,936
Slipping Counties
 
41
3.75
 
83
-7.66
75,061
 
34
4.08
 
58
1.64
242,791
 
4
8.72
 
61
1.41
520,420
 
17
5.49
 
77
-3.70
2,213,522
 
3
9.04
 
80
-4.79
277,553
 
10
6.46
 
66
-0.40
6,770
 
2
13.34
 
70
-2.05
209,345
 
36
3.92
 
81
-5.52
284,369
 
28
4.38
 
56
2.25
520,854
 
21
5.08
 
76
-3.52
32,739
 
30
4.33
 
82
-6.70
961,647
 
25
4.69
 
65
0.11
425,190
Gaining Counties
 
60
2.52
 
22
5.64
477,099
 
64
1.95
 
16
7.02
253,349
 
52
2.86
 
27
5.33
179,415
 
71
1.32
 
10
8.65
288,531
 
67
1.63
 
11
8.60
114,899
 
70
1.45
 
47
3.10
521,782
 
68
1.54
 
19
6.13
112,005
 
79
0.18
 
3
12.64
114,379
 
49
2.98
 
15
7.10
377,189
 
72
1.31
 
32
4.59
463,968
 
74
1.27
 
30
4.70
416,615
 
54
2.81
 
7
9.27
29,940
 
48
3.08
 
26
5.39
70,769
 
73
1.28
 
2
52.09
13,297
 
69
1.50
 
52
2.47
146,916
 
83
-8.22
 
35
4.37
50,027
 
66
1.68
 
13
8.38
670,662
 
59
2.54
 
34
4.39
1,859,073
 
47
3.08
 
8
9.08
178,002
 
56
2.73
 
43
3.42
330,333
Lagging Counties
 
78
0.56
 
71
-2.38
157,493
 
61
2.21
 
53
2.44
5,703,820
 
58
2.55
 
78
-4.17
311,898
 
45
3.27
 
59
1.58
40,796
 
53
2.82
 
55
2.38
5,193,635
 
46
3.19
 
79
-4.38
124,709
 
63
2.13
 
73
-2.71
51,330
 
55
2.76
 
57
1.85
364,228
 
62
2.14
 
75
-3.45
156,245
 
57
2.67
 
62
0.83
1,378,770
 
80
0.12
 
63
0.58
537,636
 
82
-0.84
 
69
-1.99
196,728
 
76
1.02
 
54
2.43
188,315
 
51
2.92
 
68
-1.44
741,442
 
77
0.61
 
67
-0.94
242,586
 
75
1.17
 
60
1.45
2,163,559
 
65
1.87
 
84
-15.49
938,517
 
81
0.01
 
64
0.16
868,838
 
50
2.94
 
72
-2.50
1,061,904
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
74
-3.37
66,891
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.29
 
2.45
55,477,794
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.99
 
3.81
1,093,461,000
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610500_LSGL
 
   
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