Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Earnings Growth
Across Ohio Counties
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real manufacturing earnings growth across all of Ohio's 88 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Ohio Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real manufacturing earnings growth of Ohio's 88 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Manufacturing
Earnings Growth
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
This figure displays the 88 counties of Ohio as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real manufacturing earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real manufacturing earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.12%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.12% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.12%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 42 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 40 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 44 counties whose most recent (2022) real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (6.75%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 38 counties whose real manufacturing earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 88 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.12% over 2010-2022 and 6.75% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.12%) and near-term (6.75%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.12%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Ohio average (6.75%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.12%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (6.75%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.12%) and near-term (6.75%).
   
 
Summary of Ohio's 88 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(6.75%)
Above
(6.75%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.12%)
14
28
42
Below
(3.12%)
24
16
40
 
38
44
82
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Ohio counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Ohio's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.12%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.75%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 28 (32%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 14 Ohio counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.12%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 6.75%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 14 (16%) of Ohio's 88 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
This figure shows the distribution of the 16 Ohio counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.12%), while they outpaced Ohio's average near-term (2022 = 6.75%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Ohio's 88 counties, 18% (16) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Ohio:
2010-2022 = 3.12%
2022 = 6.75%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 24 Ohio counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real manufacturing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.12%) as well as near-term (2022 = 6.75%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real manufacturing earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
27% of Ohio's counties, 24 of 88, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Ohio
Real* Manufacturing Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
22
4.49
 
14
12.48
625,395
 
13
5.05
 
34
8.15
2,595,356
 
10
5.27
 
24
9.80
313,543
 
33
3.84
 
19
10.00
232,645
 
24
4.46
 
16
10.81
678,741
 
32
3.88
 
29
8.88
4,048,221
 
20
4.63
 
5
15.71
552,556
 
26
4.19
 
10
13.30
237,783
 
1
10.33
 
18
10.66
44,411
 
2
8.39
 
21
10.00
759,115
 
39
3.40
 
22
9.92
450,796
 
7
5.63
 
35
8.08
759,749
 
11
5.23
 
43
7.18
2,784,198
 
31
3.88
 
26
9.74
848,507
 
18
4.81
 
17
10.79
429,916
 
28
4.05
 
41
7.44
891,815
 
37
3.55
 
28
9.27
2,562,932
 
34
3.81
 
13
12.55
38,533
 
38
3.54
 
39
7.64
83,264
 
17
4.84
 
8
15.28
62,275
 
19
4.68
 
4
17.75
306,985
 
5
6.69
 
46
6.75
352,903
 
15
4.95
 
9
13.41
409,155
 
3
7.40
 
30
8.81
168,947
 
25
4.26
 
32
8.24
366,290
 
35
3.70
 
33
8.21
1,153,471
 
14
5.04
 
11
12.75
696,117
 
23
4.47
 
20
10.00
1,203,609
Slipping Counties
 
36
3.67
 
74
2.26
271,286
 
9
5.49
 
47
6.73
689,140
 
16
4.93
 
77
2.23
57,472
 
12
5.09
 
53
6.31
576,511
 
27
4.06
 
82
-0.43
431,643
 
21
4.56
 
61
4.54
349,408
 
30
3.99
 
81
-0.10
958,629
 
42
3.17
 
73
2.46
1,941,252
 
8
5.50
 
69
2.99
273,258
 
41
3.32
 
51
6.42
762,099
 
40
3.32
 
62
4.12
708,488
 
6
6.43
 
52
6.37
1,463,236
 
29
4.03
 
55
6.15
489,259
 
4
6.86
 
50
6.59
278,258
Gaining Counties
 
45
3.02
 
45
7.05
882,254
 
54
2.45
 
23
9.88
529,784
 
56
2.42
 
44
7.07
352,904
 
57
2.35
 
3
20.20
40,754
 
73
1.42
 
36
8.00
248,840
 
60
2.28
 
37
7.76
129,453
 
65
2.01
 
6
15.59
138,384
 
51
2.61
 
7
15.29
407,883
 
76
1.28
 
25
9.76
490,121
 
74
1.30
 
31
8.78
246,923
 
64
2.09
 
27
9.69
169,910
 
82
-4.33
 
2
30.81
52,424
 
58
2.31
 
12
12.70
312,222
 
81
-0.65
 
38
7.73
704,194
 
70
1.74
 
15
11.44
1,076,271
 
50
2.72
 
42
7.33
1,190,781
Lagging Counties
 
71
1.64
 
67
3.42
67,951
 
59
2.30
 
72
2.58
291,251
 
79
0.65
 
75
2.26
163,206
 
62
2.13
 
49
6.61
6,275,194
 
78
0.90
 
48
6.62
280,652
 
63
2.13
 
71
2.69
448,484
 
69
1.80
 
80
0.16
127,383
 
67
1.86
 
79
1.00
590,332
 
49
2.77
 
63
4.10
5,888,293
 
44
3.06
 
59
5.69
260,532
 
61
2.22
 
64
4.08
131,449
 
52
2.51
 
86
-4.51
59,420
 
68
1.82
 
60
5.44
166,816
 
55
2.43
 
70
2.77
1,520,479
 
77
1.10
 
85
-4.31
430,925
 
72
1.46
 
83
-2.89
66,792
 
80
-0.30
 
84
-3.85
11,553
 
43
3.08
 
78
2.22
871,352
 
66
1.90
 
57
5.72
744,625
 
53
2.49
 
58
5.70
2,088,198
 
75
1.29
 
65
3.97
2,325,444
 
46
2.96
 
76
2.24
200,355
 
47
2.91
 
66
3.87
31,679
 
48
2.85
 
54
6.19
383,322
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
40
7.52
76,909
 
U
U
 
56
5.90
56,129
 
U
U
 
68
3.33
55,194
 
U
U
 
1
31.40
81,038
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.12
 
6.75
63,596,249
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.42
 
7.61
1,335,947,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_610500_LSGL
 
   
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